Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Black Swan Event in the Bond Market

The Fed announcement caused a black swan event. To put today's events in perspective, the 10Y yield 20 day chart looks like this:

Since 1962 the 10Y yield moved by more than 0.47% ten times out of 11960 days. So the probability of this occurring on any given day is 0.084%.

Needless to say, inflation expectations are going to go up:

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